Oregon job gains ease recession worries

Posted by The Oregonian December 17, 2007 11:11AM

Categories: Top Stories

Fears of recession in Oregon diminished Monday as state economists said the state had not only gained jobs in November but also increased employment in October, contrary to earlier reports.

Oregon’s unemployment rate remained flat — at 5.5 percent, for both months — on a seasonally adjusted basis.

David Cooke, an Oregon Employment Department economist, said November’s increase of 7,500 in Oregon’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment is significant, especially following the gain of 3,200 jobs in October. Preliminary results for October, based on incomplete data, had shown a loss of 1,400 jobs.

Oregon’s total nonfarm seasonally adjusted employment stood at 1,737,900 last month.

“It really changes our view,” Cooke said. The growth, he said, “indicates that there’s been substantial economic strength in those two months in Oregon’s economy.”

Cooke said that October’s gain, instead of loss, could also change the prognosis of a University of Oregon economic index released last week, which suggested a recession was likely imminent in the state.

Not all the November numbers were positive, however. Retail holiday-related hiring increased, but not by as much as in each of the prior five years. Construction posted a seasonally adjusted job loss of 1,200. But seasonally adjusted employment in the closely watched sector remained above 100,000.

They say we have to make room for 1 million new families and people by the year 2025. We have had a housing shortage for several years. This 6-8 month dip we have been in has brought some great flexibility to this market for the first time since 91-92. Several buyers were in the market in December all asking me…”when should we buy”. They want to buy but the news is just so negative. Well not if your watching. Sales are still ongoing and seller’s are playing with 1-3% of their sales prices to make deals. Underlying this is the continued increase in jobs and a vibrant business economy.

On the one hand we have perception fueled by the media and the gloom and doom. That has created a perception that the entire country is that way. But perception is almost always something different than reality. The reality is that Oregon is in High demand and the mix of tight urban growth boundaries and scarcity of subdivision is still there. There are jobs here. It is a good value and the livability is just the best.

The time to buy is just as the reality begins to change perception. The positive news starting to come out of the Oregon Economic development is just what the Doctor ordered. We are telling our buyers to shop hard and if the right deal is there and you are well employed than jump on it! Now is the time. The best buys will be made between the new year and the first of May.

The fed made some great moves in the past few days and this is adding some confidence back into this market. It is down but it is not staying down. Curious that we are having one of the busiest December’s we have ever had….. in 2007… the down year.

2008 is the year that people will look back and say “I got a great buy that year” or the converse of “We blew it…and should have bought in 2008 in Oregon”. I am not advocating crazy buying but these prices are good if you shop and I do not see that many buyers missing out on this next year. Shop and get the info and buy in early 2008. You can thank me in a year or two when the home is way up!

We moved about one year ago in Early 2007 to our new home in Carlyle Creek.  This home is great and everything is custom.  We really do love it.  But as we were leaving the old home which was in Rock Creek we realized how much we had loved it there.  The home there was a daylight ranch with 3 BR and 2 Baths on the main floor.  The lower level had 2 more bedrooms, another bath, a huge Laundry, and a Huge Lower level FR.  There was a brick wood burning Fireplace there and an Adobe slump block FP on the main.

 The home wa svery cozy with a few modern updates.  We really liked that design.  The lower level was cool in the Summer.  Of course the pool was nice too.  Lots of good times there and the kids all can swim like fish.  That I am thankful for.  We also had some great trails at Bethany Lake Park which you can get to by foot or Bike right there off of Columbia Blvd.  For Golfers there is the Rock creek Country Club right in the neighborhood.  The Holidays were always big in that neighborhood with Christmas and Halloween being big draws.

The main thing I think was that the kids could walk to school as Rock Creek Elementary is right there and so is Westview High School.  The homes are all around 30 years old now and so are the trees.  While leaves are a pain in the fall the whole place just has that mature nicer feel.  Of course the lots are bigger.  So that helps.  Just Minutes from Intel and Nike this is a great place to call home.  If you are looking for a home in AREA 149 and just off US 26, Rock creek is really worth a look!  We miss it there and I would go back ina  heart beat no doubt.

Courtesy of The Oregonian:

Oregon’s housing market is likely to weather the national housing storm, according to experts who spoke Nov. 29 at the Home Builders Association of Metropolitan Portland’s 2008 Housing Forecast. John Mitchell, a Portland-based economist, columnist and business analyst, predicts

Oregon’s housing market will experience several market corrections in 2008, including declines in construction lending. Those corrections will lead to a smaller industry, he said, as well as tighter credit standards that will make it more difficult for marginal borrowers to purchase a home. But Mitchell said he also expects a strong rebound in 2009. “I’m betting we’re going to make it through this without a recession,” said Mitchell, who has 35 years’ experience in the

Oregon market. “But it’s going to be a different world. It’s going to take time to work through all the pressures of the market. We went through a period that was abnormal. We’re now getting back to something more normal.” Jerry Johnson, a real estate market and regional economic development consultant with Johnson Gardner, and David Ludwig of

Vista Market Intelligence also spoke to the sold-out crowd of 700. “For the past few years, people in housing markets all over the country came to see property as an investment, like stocks,” said David Nielsen, CEO for the HBA. “Housing ‘day-traders,’ buying homes to quickly flip them, are rapidly leaving this market. Housing is returning to what it used to be — buying a stake in your community, a place to call your own. “In 2008, buyers will have great selections and will likely be able to get more for their money than in the past several years,” Nielsen added. “People with good credit will have ample access to loans, and buying a home is going to be fun again.”

As the Holidays draw near we see the listing Inventories shrink.  This later half of 2006 has been a very slow 6 months indeed.  With job growth in Oregon and especially in the Portland regional area (Clackamas, Multnomah, and Washington County) one has to wonder why the slow down?  Was it based on real underlying economic hardships or was it more based upon perception of our buying public?

One can not deny the amount of negative publicity and media that Joe Public is being offered.  It is on the news everynight and in the paper everyday.  There is no doubt that people are scared to transact on homes.  Portland, Oregon Real Estate is some of the best in the country to own by all accounts.  Prices have not fallen all and all.  And yet buyers on average when we speak to them perceive this as a Buyers market.

There are some sellers that are moving, downsizing, or just needing to sell.  For these folks they will have to sell at the lower end of their value spectrum.  There is a range of value for every home on the market.  We generally see homes being sold with about a 5% value band either side of the best comparable value.  This Spectrum as I like to call it will be effected by location, floor plan, features, and quality.  It is the case that the same 2000 sf home in Portland can be $25,000 below or $25,000 above a mid level price.  So somebody needing to move a home would be likely to sell that home in 60-90 days at the lower end of that range.

But while these factors have played out many sellers are calling this markets bluff by removing their homes from the market and just deciding to wait things out.  As the end if the year approaches the market is actually shrinking in terms of selection and inventory of homes for sale.  This is a trend that may continue.

Banks shut off the supply of money to almost all new projects and are making sure that new homes for sale now will be the homes that must be bought up before new ones may be built.  There are some great opportunities to buy now and with rates at 5.5% we are seeing buyers begin to move in.  The media is at the same time starting to talk recovery and come back.  That is going to happen as 2008 rolls out.  The deals will be all gone by mid-year as things play out here.

Again we are strongly recommending that if you are in the market….if you need to buy a home in Oregon…be active and be ready.  The time to shop is now and the time to educate yourself is now as well.  The forces are in play for inventory to continue to shrink as well. 

Have a great Holiday and make sure to call us and discuss your real estate needs!

Regards;

Dirk Knudsen

Re\max Metro

503-799-8383

For you buyers sitting on the fence you have about 3-6 months to stirke while the iron is hot.  

  

Builder Briefs: Local economist predicts strong rebound in 2009 for Oregon housing market

 

Sunday, December 02, 2007

Oregon’s housing market is likely to weather the national housing storm, according to experts who spoke Nov. 29 at the Home Builders Association of Metropolitan Portland’s 2008 Housing Forecast. John Mitchell, a Portland-based economist, columnist and business analyst, predicts Oregon’s housing market will experience several market corrections in 2008, including declines in construction lending. Those corrections will lead to a smaller industry, he said, as well as tighter credit standards that will make it more difficult for marginal borrowers to purchase a home. But Mitchell said he also expects a strong rebound in 2009. “I’m betting we’re going to make it through this without a recession,” said Mitchell, who has 35 years’ experience in the Oregon market. “But it’s going to be a different world. It’s going to take time to work through all the pressures of the market. We went through a period that was abnormal. We’re now getting back to something more normal.” Jerry Johnson, a real estate market and regional economic development consultant with Johnson Gardner, and David Ludwig of Vista Market Intelligence also spoke to the sold-out crowd of 700. “For the past few years, people in housing markets all over the country came to see property as an investment, like stocks,” said David Nielsen, CEO for the HBA. “Housing ‘day-traders,’ buying homes to quickly flip them, are rapidly leaving this market. Housing is returning to what it used to be — buying a stake in your community, a place to call your own. “In 2008, buyers will have great selections and will likely be able to get more for their money than in the past several years,” Nielsen added. “People with good credit will have ample access to loans, and buying a home is going to be fun again.”

 

Message is: 2008 = Year to Buy at the bottom of this little dip we are in.  John Mitchell is the most highly recognized and respected economist in Oregon and has been for years.  If you have been looking lets get out there and make an offer while some sellers are still willing to deal!

 

Best wishes;

 

Dirk Knudsen

503-799-8383

Re\Max Metro