As the Holidays draw near we see the listing Inventories shrink.  This later half of 2006 has been a very slow 6 months indeed.  With job growth in Oregon and especially in the Portland regional area (Clackamas, Multnomah, and Washington County) one has to wonder why the slow down?  Was it based on real underlying economic hardships or was it more based upon perception of our buying public?

One can not deny the amount of negative publicity and media that Joe Public is being offered.  It is on the news everynight and in the paper everyday.  There is no doubt that people are scared to transact on homes.  Portland, Oregon Real Estate is some of the best in the country to own by all accounts.  Prices have not fallen all and all.  And yet buyers on average when we speak to them perceive this as a Buyers market.

There are some sellers that are moving, downsizing, or just needing to sell.  For these folks they will have to sell at the lower end of their value spectrum.  There is a range of value for every home on the market.  We generally see homes being sold with about a 5% value band either side of the best comparable value.  This Spectrum as I like to call it will be effected by location, floor plan, features, and quality.  It is the case that the same 2000 sf home in Portland can be $25,000 below or $25,000 above a mid level price.  So somebody needing to move a home would be likely to sell that home in 60-90 days at the lower end of that range.

But while these factors have played out many sellers are calling this markets bluff by removing their homes from the market and just deciding to wait things out.  As the end if the year approaches the market is actually shrinking in terms of selection and inventory of homes for sale.  This is a trend that may continue.

Banks shut off the supply of money to almost all new projects and are making sure that new homes for sale now will be the homes that must be bought up before new ones may be built.  There are some great opportunities to buy now and with rates at 5.5% we are seeing buyers begin to move in.  The media is at the same time starting to talk recovery and come back.  That is going to happen as 2008 rolls out.  The deals will be all gone by mid-year as things play out here.

Again we are strongly recommending that if you are in the market….if you need to buy a home in Oregon…be active and be ready.  The time to shop is now and the time to educate yourself is now as well.  The forces are in play for inventory to continue to shrink as well. 

Have a great Holiday and make sure to call us and discuss your real estate needs!

Regards;

Dirk Knudsen

Re\max Metro

503-799-8383

For you buyers sitting on the fence you have about 3-6 months to stirke while the iron is hot.  

  

Builder Briefs: Local economist predicts strong rebound in 2009 for Oregon housing market

Sunday, December 02, 2007

Oregon’s housing market is likely to weather the national housing storm, according to experts who spoke Nov. 29 at the Home Builders Association of Metropolitan Portland’s 2008 Housing Forecast. John Mitchell, a Portland-based economist, columnist and business analyst, predicts Oregon’s housing market will experience several market corrections in 2008, including declines in construction lending. Those corrections will lead to a smaller industry, he said, as well as tighter credit standards that will make it more difficult for marginal borrowers to purchase a home. But Mitchell said he also expects a strong rebound in 2009. “I’m betting we’re going to make it through this without a recession,” said Mitchell, who has 35 years’ experience in the Oregon market. “But it’s going to be a different world. It’s going to take time to work through all the pressures of the market. We went through a period that was abnormal. We’re now getting back to something more normal.” Jerry Johnson, a real estate market and regional economic development consultant with Johnson Gardner, and David Ludwig of Vista Market Intelligence also spoke to the sold-out crowd of 700. “For the past few years, people in housing markets all over the country came to see property as an investment, like stocks,” said David Nielsen, CEO for the HBA. “Housing ‘day-traders,’ buying homes to quickly flip them, are rapidly leaving this market. Housing is returning to what it used to be — buying a stake in your community, a place to call your own. “In 2008, buyers will have great selections and will likely be able to get more for their money than in the past several years,” Nielsen added. “People with good credit will have ample access to loans, and buying a home is going to be fun again.”

Message is: 2008 = Year to Buy at the bottom of this little dip we are in.  John Mitchell is the most highly recognized and respected economist in Oregon and has been for years.  If you have been looking lets get out there and make an offer while some sellers are still willing to deal!

Best wishes;

Dirk Knudsen

503-799-8383

Re\Max Metro

Hey it really has been been a pretty busy year here in Oregon as more and more companies decide to move here to set up shop. Also there are some continued expansions into some resort areas you might want to know about as investment in Oregon is still on the rise. Despite the market correction occuring across many major us markets; Oregon is one of the places least effected and with room to still grow. On top if that we are seeing investment from China, Hong Kong, Canada, and European countries as the weak dollar attracts international investors to the game here.

Here are some news stories from around the State this year:

1: State of Oregon reports a big increase in Business Incorporations in 2006 leading Washington. Nevada and California are experiencing declines in Incorporations. This is a good indicator of underlying growth occuring that could last for years to come.

2: Big resorts planned: Fidelity National is planning “Crescent Creek” near Gilchrest, Oregon that will include a 1600 unit housing project and another 18 hoel Championship Golf Resort. This one goes to the State for approval but Klamath County is excited about the Millions in Investment that this can bring and the 500 jobs as well!!

The second Resort is actually occuring in The Dalles and at Dallesport, Washington. SUNDOON will be the next in a series of elite Golf projects by reknowned designer John Fought. This will be a links style project on the Windy Banks of the Columbia River with a stunning

Mt. Hood view to boot. The Dalles also is upgrading the airport and looking to have commuter jets service the region very soon.

Prineville: Iron Horse. The 2,951 Unit project is under construction. This will have lasting economic impact to one of Oregon’s great small town in the High Desert. This is a superb project and would be a great place to move year around or for the season. This is a continuing story and theme that we see….people leaving the big cities in search of the good life or the quiet life if you will. Maybe more than anything an indictment that our big cities are broken and that people with any where with all want out!

3 : Google and ?? Come to The Dalles:

Well Google is open and the first wave of employess are settling in. It appears that they are looking to expand already and the defunct and decommissioned Aluminum plant adjacent to Google appears to be ready to be sold. There are reportedly 15 major US companies looking yo purchase this site and expand up there in the Gorge. At about 150 acres and a deep water port….cheap power to boot…this migth be a huge investment of somebody like Micro-Soft or Intel. Many companies are moving some of their operations in land to get away from big city problems and provide security for their data. Watch this story. Everybody up there in under wraps and it is impossible to get anyone that knows anything to talk. This is for real. We are working with some investors up there so if you want to jump in give us a call. 503-799-8383 (Dirk Knudsen).

4 : Salem is on Fire!!

Would you believe it ? Oregon’s once gritty Capitol City is enjoying a rebirth as a great place to retire. Their downtown is being revitalized and a new 13 acre Riverfront project promises to be a big boom for the downtown core where shops, art, and music are beginning to thrive! This is a hot market right now in the middle of a bad market elsewhere! Go Salem.

5: Hillsboro and the Silicon Forest Cash in on Solar and Bio Tech!!

Continuing their nice run to lead the State economically the folks in Hillsboro, Oregon have successfully attracted worl energy leader Solar World to the old Komatsu plant. Solar World is the leading maker of Solar Panel components in the world and develop a chip not unlike a microprocessor for a PC. Adding to that 1000 jobs is Solacix who are now alos planning a move to Hillsboro. Rumors are that this will equate to 500 jobs.

On top of that we are all seeing the construction of Genentech’s new Shipping Facility at the corner of Shute and Evergreen Roads. This is a massive structure. We are sure there are 600 jobs going in there but the site has room for so many more. This is a great thing to see. Looks like they are here to stay. Add to that the partnership ongoing at the Amber Glen Business Park and Campus between Oregon Health Sciences University and the Oregon Graduate Center and you have a huge potential for Biomedical. This makes the Bethany, Oregon and ORENCO, Oregon Real estate markest prime for investment. There are some great buys out here right now. I think this is a great time to jump in as all of these jobs are brewing right along! Call me to discuss this in more detail: 503-799-8383 (Dirk)

6: Wind Power powers Gorge economy:

The Klondike Wind Farm in Sherman County, Oregon and the Leaning Juniper Wind farm in Gilliam County, Oregon are producing clean and viable energy for future generations. They also provide important jobs and income in these counties and are helping Portland area Vestas find good local markets for their Win Turbines. This is what we can call a “Wind-Wind solution”. Wind power promises to be a big discussion for many years to come in Oregon and Washington.
For Information on The Dalles go to www.thedalleschamber.com .

For Hillsboro go to: http://www.hillchamber.org/

Best wishes and Happy Holidays to you all!

Well the Fourth Quarter is under way and we have some pretty good data from the RMLS computers that may help you to make some sens out of the market conditions here. Here are the facts through October 2007 that will help you do some thinking about this market. They might just surprise you!

YEAR to Date Summary for 2007

Area New Listings Pending Sales Pending Sales Versus 2007 Closed Sales Median Price Appreciation Rate

149 Bethany 2,330 1,126 1% increase 1,100 $418,400 2.7%

150 Hillsboro 3,544 1,689 -13.6% 1,693 $298,400 8.7%

So these numbers show us being flat for the year over all with Bethany, Oregon picking up about 3% in value this year. Hillsboro is actually showing an 8.7% increase in value but the number of sales year over year is off almost 14%. These numbers do not lie and defy the overall perception in the media that this is a bad market or a down market.

Of course every market is different and every house is different. Certainly not every home is up and the reality is that many are flat or down in value. But really the market is just sort of stuck as buyers expect huge reductions and are not getting them and sellers expect a quick sale at a record price and they are getting that either. So we really do have a Mexican stand off. If I am a buyer I am looking and making an offer on what I see if the value is right! A great time to be in the market and getting ready to make a purchase. Look for January and February to big very active months as pent up demand is sure to break out.

Good luck to everyone looking and as always please call Dirk Knudsen at 503-799-8383 to discuss your home sale or purchase. I am sure I can help you determine the right move for you.

 

For the purpose of this post I will not belabor the point other than to tell you that if you have not seen the Orenco Station you should.  But there is so much more to see than just the Station.  There are schools, parks, jobs, business, stores, bistro’s, and a killer selection of homes.  Not to mention the MAX Light rail that can take you almost anywhere!  You can find Condo’s of all types, turn of the Century Cottages, Custom Homes, Townhomes, Flats, Brownstones, and Historic Homes too.

Check out all the housing in the Orenco area at the #1 home source for the area updated on a regular basis at:

www.Orenco.info

There is a lot to see and to understand about this up and coming area in the middle of the Sunset Corridor; aka the Silicon Forest!  Make sure to contact one of our award winning agents who are experts in the Orenco Area!

Call Dirk or Todd Knudsen at 503-617-6490 or 503-799-8383.

Some of the best Homes ever built near the MAX Light Rail and the 3 Time National Community of the Year, The Orenco Station, are available for purchase now at Orenco Meadows! Builder Pays Custom Homes has done a superb job of bringing together top quality materials and design at this intimate and quiet single family home neighborhood. The remaining homes range from the low $300K range to about $500K. Every home comes with top quality Materials and finishes. Right now the builder is offering some great pricing on a selection of homes with prices reduced up to $60,000. This is subject to change anytime so call Dirk or Todd Knudsen at Re\Max Metro for all of the details.